Alongside Giacomo Benedetto (Jean Monnet Chair in EU Politics), Professor Chris Grey and Dr David Yuratich, Dr Petar Stankov from the department gave an economic perspective on the consequences of Brexit.
Dr Benedetto discussed the withdrawal agreement, and the framework for future relationships with the EU.
Professor Grey explained the business implications of Brexit, and the possible supply chain disruptions.
Dr Yuratich expanded on the legal frameworks around revoking or extending Article 50.
Dr Stankov discussed various possible withdrawal scenarios, summarising the macroeconomic effects of Brexit. He also sought to dispel some myths about the effects of migration on UK social and healthcare systems, and on wages. After presenting the facts, Dr Stankov concluded:
- Brexit will leave the UK permanently poorer, relative to a Remain scenario.
- Significant economic risks would be incurred, due to the disintegration with a major trading partner.
- Risks are worsened by the fact that no new free trade deals have been done with other major trading partners, and taking into consideration the global growth slowdown.
- EU workers contribute more to the UK social system than they take back (e.g. NHS)
- Brexit would leave both the UK and the EU weaker.
- If Remain is no longer an option on the table, then:
- Common Market deal with the EU would minimise risks on UK economy;
- Norway/Switzerland model would provide full access to the single market, with political freedom;
- Deal should be struck as soon as possible to minimise uncertainty.